Efficiency gains drove electricity use down, but demand expected to rise 10% amidst shift away from carbon
MAY 14, 2025…..Following two decades of flat or decreasing energy demand, the push from Massachusetts and other states for more widespread electric heating and transportation is projected to push demand on the grid up about 11% over the next decade, the region’s grid operator said in a new comprehensive report.
The New England region used 116,813 gigawatt-hours of energy in 2024 and is projected to use 117,262 GWh in 2025, the report from ISO New England said. By 2034, ISO-NE is projecting that energy use will rise to 130,665 GWh. That’s well above the historical average of 124,438 GWh but still below 2005’s peak of 136,425 GWh. In 1995, the region used 112,850 GWh of energy.
“Net annual energy use in New England grew steadily between 1995 and 2005, driven primarily by increased economic growth and the use of air conditioning. Since 2005, net annual energy use has trended downward mainly due to an increase in energy efficiency from advanced cooling and heating technologies, energy-efficient appliances and lighting, and the increased prevalence of BTM PV generation,” the report said. “However, ISO New England is predicting that trend will reverse in the next decade.”
The story is similar for grids all across America. Ray Long, president and CEO of the American Council on Renewable Energy, said this week that the United States “needs to build the equivalent of adding 12 New York Cities of new power by 2030 to remain competitive with China in the global AI race.”
ISO-NE acknowledged the dramatic increase in expected energy demand its report projects, but said the updated methodology it used for the 2025–2034 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission actually resulted in a lower overall energy use forecast than previous editions.
That’s due in large part to a downward revision in the transportation electrification forecast due to “slower-than-expected EV adoption to date and uncertainty around incentive programs moving forward,” ISO-NE said. Forecasts for peak demand — the single hour of greatest electricity use in a given day — are about the same as previous expectations.
Though some state energy officials thought the region could flip from experiencing its highest energy demand in summer to a winter peaking system as more homes switch to electric heating, ISO-NE is forecasting that summer will remain the season of greatest demand for the next decade but the difference between seasons will be far less significant.
For 2025, the report projected demand will peak at 24,803 megawatts in summertime and at 20,056 MW in wintertime. By 2034, the forecast expects summertime peaks of 26,897 MW and wintertime peaks of 26,020 MW. The all-time high levels of demand for ISO-NE are 28,130 MW in summer (2006) and 22,818 MW in winter (2004).
Demand for electricity from the New England grid fell to its lowest level ever, 5,318 MW, on April 20 thanks to warm spring temperatures, sunny skies and bountiful production from rooftop solar panels.
The time of day when both the summer and winter peak hours occur is changing, though.
The rise of so-called behind-the-meter solar installations on homes and businesses means that a significant share of the region’s actual electricity consumption can be satisfied without putting that demand on the grid. That has the effect of pushing the peak hour later into the afternoon or evening — the solar handles a chunk of demand while the sun is shining, but the traditional grid sees demand rise as solar production goes down with the sun.
ISO-NE’s report projects behind-the-meter solar will reduce the summer peak by 1,870 MW in each year of the forecast. In winter, the peak hour is expected to start moving from evening to the morning hours, when people wake up and start heating their homes and businesses and as solar production is just ramping up.
Attention on ISO’s Operations
With the expected rise in electricity demand has come greater attention on and scrutiny of ISO-NE as the region’s grid manager.
Last spring, U.S. Sen. Ed Markey led a letter to ISO-NE officials raising concerns that the organization’s “governing procedures lack transparency and allow fossil fuel industry representatives to play an outsized role in decision-making.” ISO-NE is a private nonprofit, but ratepayer charges fund its operations. The organization said its services are estimated to cost the average New England residential electricity consumer $1.71 per month in 2025.
On Wednesday, advocates who have long complained about opaque operations and limited opportunities for public input released a new report card grading the transparency, accessibility and accountability of seven of the nation’s regional electric grid operators.
“ISO-NE receives the lowest grade overall, indicating that ISO-NE has the greatest number of improvements to make,” the report from New England nonprofit Slingshot and the advocacy campaign Fix the Grid said.
The groups said ISO-NE received a “C” for transparency, “F” in accessibility, and “F” in accountability, “due mainly to how difficult it is for the public, advocates, and state leaders to participate at the highest levels of decision making.”
ISOs (independent system operators) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs) are critically important entities because they have a role in determining which power plants are built or are run, and what transmission infrastructure is needed, advocates said. The report said the groups were created at the behest of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission “with the goal of providing more affordable and reliable power to consumers.”
“However, everyday consumers, community groups, and public representatives often find it difficult to understand, participate in, and meaningfully influence ISO/RTO processes and decision-making that impact them, which is why it is important to assess ISO/RTO performance in the areas of transparency, accessibility and accountability—all of which are crucial to giving the public they serve a voice,” advocates said.
In response to Markey’s letter last year, ISO-NE President and CEO Gordon van Welie sent a lengthy letter that detailed changes ISO-NE has made to its governance and operations in recent years, including holding an open board meeting annually since 2022 and developing plain-language summaries of more complex reports and studies.
The grid operator recognizes that there’s widespread interest in its work, but van Welie said “it appears that there is a misunderstanding regarding the role of the ISO, the stakeholder process in New England, the objectives of the region’s wholesale markets and transmission planning process, and the limits of our jurisdiction.”
“While the ISO is doing a tremendous amount of work to fulfill our vision to enable the region’s transition to a reliable and clean energy future, the ISO does not have the authority to directly drive the clean energy transition. However, Congress has the ability to enact changes that may assist the clean energy transition (as it has done with the Inflation Reduction Act, or potentially through an economy‐wide price on carbon),” he wrote. “Without further direction from federal policymakers, the states will be the primary drivers of the clean energy transition and the ISO’s role will be to assure reliability through competitive electricity markets, effective system operations and various transmission planning processes.”
